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The comments and posts published in this blog ARE NOT trading recommendations. They can NEVER be considered as trading calls or advices. If you decide to use the information offered here for your real trading it is at your own risk.

Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to trade foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

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Thursday, February 11, 2010

Over trading - a strict NO NO

So you are an average retail trader with say, $4,000 as funds. Your broker is allowing you maximum leverage of 400:1.

You buy a standard lot of EUR/USD. At 400:1 leverage, your margin requirement is $250. Therefore, available margin = $4,000 - $250 = $3,750. It is also the same as maximum draw-down you can handle before getting a margin call.
Thus, maximum draw-down pips you can handle = $3,750/$100,000 = 0.0375 = 375 pips.
40 pips profit in this case means = (0.0040) * 100,000 * $1 = $400

Now, if you buy a mini lot: (grab a pen and paper and calculate by yourself before going further)
margin requirement = $10,000/400 = $25
available margin/maximum draw-down = $4,000 - $25 = $3,975
maximum draw-down pips = $3,975/$10,000 = 0.3975 = 3975 pips !!!
40 pips profit = (0.0040) * 10,000 * $1 = $40

Conclusion: Lower margin means you can handle more draw-down, but the trade-off is that your profit is lesser. Determine the lot size you are most comfortable to handle and the draw-down you are ready to risk.

Recommended Lot-size = Account value / (Drawdown in pips + 1/Leverage)
Most traders are comfortable with a draw-down of 500 pips. So for $4,000 account value,
recommended lot-size = $4,000 / (500pips + 1/400) = $4,000 / 0.0525 = ~75,000 (rounded down)
margin requirement = $75,000/400 = $187.50 < $200 (5% of $4,000)
Hence, 5% is a safe upper ceiling for margin requirement. Lower risk traders prefer 2%.

When using a lower leverage, say 100:1, as preferred by US brokers
recommended lot-size = $4,000 / (500pips + 1/100) = $4,000 / 0.06 = ~66,000 (rounded down)
margin requirement = $66,000/100 = $660 > $600 (15% of $4,000)
This is aggressive. You may prefer to stick to the 5% rule, in which case, recommended lot size = $200 * 100 = 20,000

Fund managers use 2:1 or 3:1 leverage at maximum. However, they have a portfolio of minimum $1,000,000 out of which they will risk 10% at maximum.
recommended lot-size = $100,000 / (500pips + 1/2) = $100,000 / 0.55 = ~180,000 (rounded down)
margin requirement = $180,000/2 = $90,000 = 9% of $1M. A fund manager may be aggressive at certain times and use a 10% margin. Or, he may be relaxed exposing only 2% to the market.

Using this simple tool and staying well below the recommended lot-size limit will definitely help you to prevent over-trading. Until your emotions and greed get the better of your trading instincts, that is!